Description
Short-term forecasts of international migration are often based on data that are incomplete, biased, and reported with delays. There is also a scarcity of migration forecasts based on combined traditional and new forms of data. This research assessed an inclusive approach of supplementing official migration statistics, typically reported with a delay, with the so-called Big Data from Google searches to produce short-term forecasts (now-casts) of immigration flows from Romania to the UK. Google Trends data were used to create composite variables depicting general interest of Romanians in migrating into the UK. These variables were then assessed as predictors and compared with benchmark results by using univariate time series models.Our results showed that the indices of search keywords related to seeking employment and education can be used to create a composite index that could improve the short-term now-casts (one year ahead). These indices can then be used to complement official migration statistics and, thus, help detect potential sudden changes in migration patterns. Also, the keywords related to employment and education are in line with the main reasons for migration as discussed in the literature. The other composite indices, related to housing and the exchange rates of the Romanian and British currencies, showed mixed patterns in the ability to improve forecasts. These two indices are also difficult to interpret and may be related to short-term or seasonal migration. The overall index based on all search keywords showed reductions in forecast errors when predicting 2019 migration, with very minor reductions for 2018.
Period | 25 Nov 2022 |
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Event title | Migration & Diversity in the British & Irish Isles |
Event type | Seminar |
Location | Paris, FranceShow on map |
Degree of Recognition | National |
Related content
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Projects
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Statistical Modelling
Project: Research
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Research output
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Now-casting Romanian Migration into the United Kingdom by using Google Search engine data
Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review
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Migration forecasting using new technology and methods
Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Chapter › peer-review
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Datasets