Description
Estimates and predictions of current and future population are one of the most important areas of demography. They are needed for monitoring social trends, making decisions about resources, planning and assessing demand for social services. This talk will introduce a cohort component method of estimating and predicting populations. The method is capable of producing deterministic, scenario-based projections of current and future population, as well as producing probabilistic forecasts that provide measures of uncertainty about demographic components and future population. The advantages and disadvantages of the two approaches will be compared.| Period | 30 Mar 2023 |
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| Held at | Sun Yat-sen University, China |
| Degree of Recognition | Local |
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Bayesian Population Forecasting: Extending the Lee-Carter Method
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Multiregional population forecasting: A unifying probabilistic approach for modelling the components of change
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Projects
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Statistical Modelling
Project: Research