NEW STATESMAN
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2016/10/road-batley-and-spen-bereaved-voters-approach-election-they-never-wanted
“It’s sort of middle of the range, Batley, in terms of how demographically Ukippy it is,” says Rob Ford, a political science professor at the University of Manchester and author of Revolt on the Right, who has been studying the most Ukip-vulnerable Labour seats. “These are often very classic swing seats, more heterogeneous than the typical seat. You’ve got parts of it that are either more ethnic minority, or more middle-class and well-off. But then you’ve got other parts that are quite poor and deprived."
He says this could lead to “decent pockets” turning to the populist right, and warns that these might turn to far-right parties in Ukip’s absence. “There could be a 10, 15 per cent, or even more, segment of the electorate there that’s hacked off, quite English nationalist, strongly anti-immigration, strongly Brexity,” he notes. “They may well go to the English Democrats.”
He adds: “I don’t currently have a strong explanation for that kind of inward-looking, immigration-sceptic, English kind of identity – that kind of aggressive George Cross Englishness that we’re now seeing more of in our politics. There seems to be more of it in the kind of east, north-east half of the country than there is elsewhere.”