THE CONVERSATION: Rationality: research shows we’re not as stupid as we have been led to believe

Description

Suppose you toss a coin and get four heads in a row – what do you think will come up on the fifth toss? Many of us have a gut feeling that a tails is due. This feeling, called the Gambler’s Fallacy, can be seen in action at the roulette wheel. A long run of blacks leads to a flurry of bets on red. In fact, no matter what has gone before, red and black are always equally likely.

The example is one of many thought to demonstrate the fallibility of the human mind. Decades of psychological research have emphasised the biases and errors in human decision making. But a new approach is challenging this view – showing that people are much smarter than they’ve been led to believe. According to this research, the Gambler’s Fallacy might not be as irrational as it seems.

https://theconversation.com/rationality-research-shows-were-not-as-stupid-as-we-have-been-led-to-believe-108218