THE GUARDIAN: Are the Brexit party's election targets realistic?

Press/Media: Expert comment

Description

Experts say that in recent years the Conservative vote has been directly impacted by Farage, whether that is from his previous party, Ukip, or his current party. “The two things are directly related,” said Robert Ford, a professor of politics at the University of Manchester.

Polling has previously shown that between 50-60% of the 2015 Ukip vote went to the Conservatives in 2017, and when the Conservatives did less well in 2015 it was because the Ukip vote soared. Far more of the former Ukip voters of 2015 drifted to the Tories in 2017 than went to Labour, which is why, Ford suggests, “all things being equal the Conservatives stand to lose more from the Brexit party standing”.

Period1 Nov 2019

Media contributions

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Media contributions

  • TitleAre the Brexit party's election targets realistic?
    Media name/outletThe Guardian
    Media typeWeb
    Country/TerritoryUnited Kingdom
    Date1/11/19
    DescriptionExperts say that in recent years the Conservative vote has been directly impacted by Farage, whether that is from his previous party, Ukip, or his current party. “The two things are directly related,” said Robert Ford, a professor of politics at the University of Manchester.

    Polling has previously shown that between 50-60% of the 2015 Ukip vote went to the Conservatives in 2017, and when the Conservatives did less well in 2015 it was because the Ukip vote soared. Far more of the former Ukip voters of 2015 drifted to the Tories in 2017 than went to Labour, which is why, Ford suggests, “all things being equal the Conservatives stand to lose more from the Brexit party standing”.
    URLhttps://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/01/are-brexit-party-election-targets-realistic-ambition
    PersonsRobert Ford
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Keywords

  • UK politics
  • the Brexit Party