THE GUARDIAN: Can we still trust opinion polls after 2015, Brexit and Trump?

  • Christopher Prosser

Press/Media: Expert comment

Description

Instead, Dr Jonathan Mellon of Nuffield College, Oxford, and Dr Christopher Presser of Manchester University, have written to the Guardian suggesting the 2015 miss was down to the pollsters not contacting enough people from hard-to-reach groups who do not usually vote in elections. Pollsters, who are scrupulous in weighting their samples to look like those who vote, ended up overcounting the voting intentions of those who demographically resembled the missing non-voters.

Period8 May 2017

Media contributions

1

Media contributions

  • TitleCan we still trust opinion polls after 2015, Brexit and Trump?
    Degree of recognitionNational
    Media name/outletThe Guardian
    Media typeWeb
    Country/TerritoryUnited Kingdom
    Date8/05/17
    DescriptionInstead, Dr Jonathan Mellon of Nuffield College, Oxford, and Dr Christopher Presser of Manchester University, have written to the Guardian suggesting the 2015 miss was down to the pollsters not contacting enough people from hard-to-reach groups who do not usually vote in elections. Pollsters, who are scrupulous in weighting their samples to look like those who vote, ended up overcounting the voting intentions of those who demographically resembled the missing non-voters.
    Producer/AuthorAlan Travis
    URLhttps://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/08/opinion-polls-general-election
    PersonsChristopher Prosser
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Research Beacons, Institutes and Platforms

  • Cathie Marsh Institute

Keywords

  • opinion polls
  • elections
  • voting
  • UK politics

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