Impact of Demographic Projections on Sub-national Planning

Narrative

Research on demographic projection methods, undertaken at the University of Manchester (UoM), provided the basis for POPGROUP, a software package recognised as the industry standard for local demographic planning in Great Britain and adopted by the Local Government Association (LGA) in 2010. Three impacts emerge from POPGROUP. Firstly, in estimating how migration will be restricted or stimulated according to the provision of housing, the software permits local government to assess a range of house-building scenarios, enabling the effective implementation of, most recently, the ‘National Planning Policy Framework’ (2012). Secondly, by extending demographic projections to areas other than local authority boundaries, it enables national statistical agencies to project demographic demand (e.g. in National Parks). Thirdly, the ubiquity of POPGROUP has led to the increasing use of demographic tools within the commercial sector.

Impact date	2014
Category of impact	Technological impacts, Economic impacts, Legal impacts, Societal impacts
Impact level	Adoption