Dr Thomas Mee is a Research Associate within the PRECISE group. He has a degree in Chemical and BioSystems Engineering, but focussed on mathematical modelling of healthcare for his PhD at the University of Surrey. He has been working on the MALTHUS model, modelling and projecting radiotherapy demand within the NHS, since 2010. Outside of NHS England, Dr Mee’s research has been used in numerous countries, is the subject of new international collaborations with cancer institutions and has gained commercial interest. He has strong links to and collaborates with the University of Cambridge/Addenbrooke’s NHS foundation trust as well as holding an honorary Christie NHS foundation trust contract.

The Malthus Project

Malthus (Monte Carlo Applications for Local Treatment Healthcare Utilisation Simulations) is a project that focusses on analysing data and simulating radiotherapy demand at a local level around NHS-England. The core of the model is a Monte-Carlo based discreet-event simulation with a virtual patient generator that allows the re-creation of statistically representative patient cohorts linked to granular incidence data without straying into the realms of potentially-identifiable data. Malthus also includes projection models for population (from the ONS) and cancer incidence (from CRUK), allowing simulations to project into the future. The model also maps around 2,000 evidence-based clinical decisions relating to radiotherapy.

Malthus is useful for clinicians, planners, commissioners and researchers who can use the tool for basic demand simulations to simulations estimating the demand of new technology and the impact of clinical trials influencing treatment paradigms. The tool was created with plug and play data to allow new data-sets to be input and new clinical decisions to be mapped.

We are currently exploring the research opportunities of expanding Malthus into Proton Beam Therapy (PBT) by utilising the high-quality data that has been collected by the National Cancer Registration and Analysis Service and national clinical expertise, to generate a scenario-based model for a national PBT service. Interest has been shown in the model from countries around the world to see if it can be applicable with their data, and from industry too.

	Karen Kirkby  Group Lead Richard Rose Chair in Proton Therapy Physics  View Profile Karen.Kirkby@manchester.ac.uk
	Neil Burnet  Chair in Clinical Academic Proton Therapy View Profile Neil.Burnet@manchester.ac.uk
	Norman Kirkby  Research Fellow View Profile Norman.Kirkby@manchester.ac.uk
	Michael Taylor  Lecturer in Proton Therapy Physics  View Profile M.J.Taylor@manchester.ac.uk
	Michael Merchant  Lecturer in Proton Therapy Physics View Profile Michael.Merchant@Manchester.ac.uk
	Thomas Mee  Research Associate  View Profile Thomas.Mee@Manchester.ac.uk
	Amy Chadwick  Research Associate  View Profile Amy.Chadwick@Manchester.ac.uk

Current PRECISE PhD Students

Nicholas Henthorn
John Warmenhoven
Marios Sotiropoulos
Rebecca Morris
Costanza Panaino
Edward A K Smith
Yunzhou Xia
Emma Biglin
Sam Ingram