Incorporating the gains from healthy ageing in health systems planning

This project aims to develop evidence-based fit-for-purpose economic models for planning future capacity for public health programmes by developing new methodological approaches incorporating dynamic changes in health and health risks over time. The project expects to generate new knowledge on the impact of improvements in physical and mental well-being on funding and capacity requirements for public programmes to meet tomorrow’s needs for care instead of projecting yesterday’s use of care. Expected outcomes include new economic models responsive to changes in population characteristics, conditions and contexts. The proposed research should provide significant benefits through improving efficiency of public investments in health.
Objectives:
o To determine trends in the number and proportion of individuals reporting health problems across different age groups in the Australian population.
o To estimate the effects of birth cohorts in explaining trends in health problems after allowing for age-related differences in health.
o To estimate the expected levels of health by age group over the next 30 years after allowing for expected changes in age-specific survival and health problems.
o To estimate the impact on future health care capacity and expenditure requirements of incorporating cohort effects in planning models.