A Bivariate Weibull Count Model for Forecasting Association Football Scores

The paper presents a forecasting model for association football scores. The model uses a Weibull-inter-arrival times based count process and a copula to produce a bivariate distribution for the number of goals scored by the home and away teams in a match. We test it against a variety of alternatives, including the simpler Poisson distribution-based model and an independent version of our model. The out-of-sample performance of our methodology is illustrated rst using calibration curves and then in a Kelly-type betting strategy that is applied to the pre-match win/draw/loss market and to the over-under 2.5 goals market. The new model provides an improved t to data compared to previous models and results in positive returns to betting.