In this paper, a medium term forecasting model is proposed, intended to be used for the extrapolation of loads containing small proportion of air-conditioners. The main feature of the proposed model is the decomposition of the weekly load observations into two independent components: trend line and seasonal variations. The trend line is described by the combination of the polynomial regression and the first order autoregressive model.
|Number of pages||11|
|Journal||Electric Power Systems Research|
|Publication status||Published - Jan 1994|
- Medium-term forecasting; trend and seasonal variations; autoregressive model; generalised least squares