Abstract
In this paper, a medium term forecasting model is proposed, intended to be used for the extrapolation of loads containing small proportion of air-conditioners. The main feature of the proposed model is the decomposition of the weekly load observations into two independent components: trend line and seasonal variations. The trend line is described by the combination of the polynomial regression and the first order autoregressive model.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 57-67 |
| Number of pages | 11 |
| Journal | Electric Power Systems Research |
| Volume | 29 |
| Issue number | 1 |
| Publication status | Published - Jan 1994 |
Keywords
- Medium-term forecasting; trend and seasonal variations; autoregressive model; generalised least squares