A prognostic index for 30-day mortality after stroke

Richard Heller; Yang Wang; Lynette L Y Lim; Christopher Levi; Richard F Heller; Janet Fischer

doi:10.1016/S0895-4356(01)00338-9

A prognostic index for 30-day mortality after stroke

Richard Heller, Yang Wang, Lynette L Y Lim, Christopher Levi, Richard F Heller, Janet Fischer

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

The objective of this study was to develop a simplified scoring system to predict 30-day mortality in patients with acute ischemic stroke. A retrospective cohort study was performed in a tertiary referral hospital in the Hunter Region of Australia. A prognostic index was created by assigning points to the variables in a Cox model. The index included impaired consciousness (5 points), dysphagia (3 points), urinary incontinence (4 points), admission body temperature higher than 36.5°C (2 points), and hyperglycemia without a clinical history of diabetes (2 points). A score of 11 or more defined a high-risk group. The index achieved a sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value of 68%, 98% and 75%, respectively, in the derivation sample and 57%, 97% and 68%, respectively, in the validation sample. The results provide a simple risk stratification instrument for clinical research and practice. Further evaluation of the model in a prospective cohort is warranted. © 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	766-773
Number of pages	7
Journal	Journal of Clinical Epidemiology
Volume	54
Issue number	8
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/S0895-4356(01)00338-9
Publication status	Published - 2001

Keywords

30-Day mortality
Ischemic stroke
Prognostic index

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1016/S0895-4356(01)00338-9

Cite this

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title = "A prognostic index for 30-day mortality after stroke",

abstract = "The objective of this study was to develop a simplified scoring system to predict 30-day mortality in patients with acute ischemic stroke. A retrospective cohort study was performed in a tertiary referral hospital in the Hunter Region of Australia. A prognostic index was created by assigning points to the variables in a Cox model. The index included impaired consciousness (5 points), dysphagia (3 points), urinary incontinence (4 points), admission body temperature higher than 36.5°C (2 points), and hyperglycemia without a clinical history of diabetes (2 points). A score of 11 or more defined a high-risk group. The index achieved a sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value of 68%, 98% and 75%, respectively, in the derivation sample and 57%, 97% and 68%, respectively, in the validation sample. The results provide a simple risk stratification instrument for clinical research and practice. Further evaluation of the model in a prospective cohort is warranted. {\textcopyright} 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.",

keywords = "30-Day mortality, Ischemic stroke, Prognostic index",

author = "Richard Heller and Yang Wang and Lim, {Lynette L Y} and Christopher Levi and {F Heller}, Richard and Janet Fischer",

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AU - Heller, Richard

AU - Wang, Yang

AU - Lim, Lynette L Y

AU - Levi, Christopher

AU - F Heller, Richard

AU - Fischer, Janet

N1 - UI - 21363605DA - 20010725IS - 0895-4356LA - engPT - Journal ArticleSB - IM

PY - 2001

Y1 - 2001

N2 - The objective of this study was to develop a simplified scoring system to predict 30-day mortality in patients with acute ischemic stroke. A retrospective cohort study was performed in a tertiary referral hospital in the Hunter Region of Australia. A prognostic index was created by assigning points to the variables in a Cox model. The index included impaired consciousness (5 points), dysphagia (3 points), urinary incontinence (4 points), admission body temperature higher than 36.5°C (2 points), and hyperglycemia without a clinical history of diabetes (2 points). A score of 11 or more defined a high-risk group. The index achieved a sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value of 68%, 98% and 75%, respectively, in the derivation sample and 57%, 97% and 68%, respectively, in the validation sample. The results provide a simple risk stratification instrument for clinical research and practice. Further evaluation of the model in a prospective cohort is warranted. © 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

AB - The objective of this study was to develop a simplified scoring system to predict 30-day mortality in patients with acute ischemic stroke. A retrospective cohort study was performed in a tertiary referral hospital in the Hunter Region of Australia. A prognostic index was created by assigning points to the variables in a Cox model. The index included impaired consciousness (5 points), dysphagia (3 points), urinary incontinence (4 points), admission body temperature higher than 36.5°C (2 points), and hyperglycemia without a clinical history of diabetes (2 points). A score of 11 or more defined a high-risk group. The index achieved a sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value of 68%, 98% and 75%, respectively, in the derivation sample and 57%, 97% and 68%, respectively, in the validation sample. The results provide a simple risk stratification instrument for clinical research and practice. Further evaluation of the model in a prospective cohort is warranted. © 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

KW - 30-Day mortality

KW - Ischemic stroke

KW - Prognostic index

U2 - 10.1016/S0895-4356(01)00338-9

DO - 10.1016/S0895-4356(01)00338-9

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EP - 773

JO - Journal of Clinical Epidemiology

JF - Journal of Clinical Epidemiology

IS - 8

ER -

A prognostic index for 30-day mortality after stroke

Abstract

Keywords

UN SDGs

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