A Simulation Model of Negotiations on Affordable Housing Provision

In several planning systems, the provision of affordable housing is negotiated between local authorities and private developers. Those negotiations are not often accessible to students and researchers for understanding and analysis. This article presents a multi-agent simulation model of the negotiations on affordable housing in England. The model is designed to help students and researchers generate hypotheses about the impact of housing markets, local policies and negotiation behaviours on the negotiation outcomes, and consequently, the provision of affordable housing. We conducted a thought experiment using the model and resulted in four hypotheses. First, even under similar local policies for affordable housing, there would be a range for the actual possible provision depending on the housing market. Second, negotiating the tenure mix of affordable units before their total number might lead to failing the negotiations. Third, variations in the provision of units within that range or failing the negotiations depended on negotiation behaviours. Fourth, changing local policies in a housing market affected the probability of failing the negotiations and the most likely outcome to agree on but not the range of possible agreement. The experiment demonstrated the model’s applicability as a tool for hypotheses generation, hence its potential to advance knowledge.