A strategic forecasting framework for governmental decision-making and planning

Nicolas D. Savio, Konstantinos Nikolopoulos

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


    An important stage in the policy-making process involves deciding on the strategy to be adopted for implementation, so that the objectives of the policy are met in the best possible way. A Policy Implementation Strategy (PIS) adopts a broad view of implementation, which is argued to transcend formulation and decision-making, thereby offering a more realistic view of the policy process. Governmental decision-makers are often faced with having to choose one PIS from among several possible alternatives, at varying cost levels. In order to aid such a decision-making process, PIS effectiveness forecasts are proposed as a strategic decision-support tool. The methods currently available for such a purpose are found to include resource-intensive evaluative techniques such as Impact Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis. In this study, a Structured Analogies forecasting approach is proposed, and the empirical evidence suggests that it could be seen as a strategic tool in the hands of governmental officers. © 2011 International Institute of Forecasters.
    Original languageEnglish
    JournalInternational Journal of Forecasting
    Publication statusPublished - 2013


    • Forecasting
    • Government
    • Policy implementation strategies
    • Strategy
    • Structured Analogies


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