A systems perspective on decarbonising the UK energy system – the impacts on shipping CO2 emissions

The UK’s climate change mitigation policies require reductions in CO2 emissions of 80% by 2050 within specified emission budgets. Meeting these objectives necessitates the deployment of low carbon technology across the whole UK energy system for the provision of electricity, heat and energy for transport. A shift to electricity, for example, is envisaged for heat and surface transport, with decarbonisation of the grid by 2030. Current energy supply relies heavily on the shipping of fossil fuels in the form of coal, gas, oil and transport fuels; these imports contribute 46% of UK imports by weight. The future energy system may take many different forms, and different supply options will have a knock-on effect on the patterns of fossil fuel trade into the UK, with a corresponding impact on the demand for shipping. This paper uses two contrasting future energy scenarios devised out by the UK’s Department of Energy and Climate Change to explore future demand for fuel and demonstrates that different scenarios imply differing patterns of imports and a corresponding impact on the CO2 emissions from the shipping of that fuel.