Accuracy of tropical peat and non-peat fire forecasts enhanced by simulating hydrology

Soil moisture deficits and water table dynamics are major biophysical controls on peat and non-peat fires in Indonesia. Development of modern fire forecasting models in Indonesia is hampered by the lack of scalable hydrologic datasets or scalable hydrology models that can inform the fire forecasting models on soil hydrologic behaviour. Existing fire forecasting models in Indonesia use weather data-derived fire probability indices, which often do not adequately proxy the sub-surface hydrologic dynamics. Here we demonstrate that soil moisture and water table dynamics can be simulated successfully across tropical peatlands and non-peatland areas by using a process-based eco-hydrology model (ecosys) and publicly available data for weather, soil, and management. Inclusion of these modelled water table depth and soil moisture contents significantly improves the accuracy of a neural network model in predicting active fires at two-weekly time scale. This constitutes an important step towards devising an operational fire early warning system for Indonesia.