Analyzing climate variability and its effects in Sundarban Biosphere Reserve, India: reaffirmation from local communities

Climate variability and continual occurrence of cyclones, flood and storm surge have greater implications on fragile ecosystem of Indian Sundarban Biosphere Reserve (SBR). Centurial meteorological data were used to assess the climate variability in the Reserve. Multivariate principal component analysis was performed to identify the consistency among the conditioning parameters of climate. Cyclones, severe cyclone, storm surge height, salinity intrusion, pH and surface water temperature were assessed to figure out the overall consequences of climate variability. Field investigation from 570 households from coastal and inland blocks (administrative division of the district) was carried out to reaffirm the variability in climatic conditions and its environmental, economic and social consequences in SBR. Study revealed wide spatiotemporal variation in temperature and rainfall. Rise in sea level, flood and high storm surge height and salinity intrusion were inducing vulnerability in the coastal blocks. Communities in Gosaba, Kultali, Kakdwip, Sagar, Patharpratima and Namkhana blocks largely showed high level of agreement for climate variability. Hence, the study calls for effective adaptation and mitigation strategies.