Bayesian Multi-Dimensional Mortality Reconstruction

Even though mortality differentials by socio-economic status and educational attainment level have been widely examined, this research is often limited to developed countries and recent years. This is primarily due to the absence of consistently good-quality inherent data. Systematic studies with a broad geographical and temporal spectrum that engage with the link between educational attainment and mortality are lacking. In this paper, we propose a mortality rates reconstruction model based on multiple patchy data sources, and provide mortality rates by level of education. The proposed model is a hierarchical Bayesian model that combines the strengths of multiple sources in order to disaggregate mortality rates by time periods, age groups, sex and educational attainment. We apply the model in a case study that includes 13 countries across South-East Europe, Western Asia and North Africa, and calculate education-specific mortality rates for five-year age groups starting at age 15 for the 1980-2015 time period. Furthermore, we evaluate the model’s performance relying on standard convergence indicators and trace plots, and validate our estimates via posterior predictive checks. This study contributes to the literature by proposing a novel methodology to enhance the research on the relationship between education and adult mortality. It addresses the lack of educations-pecific mortality differentials by providing a flexible method for their estimation.