Challenges for stochastic epidemic models involving global transmission

T Britton; T House; A L Lloyd; D Mollison; S Riley; P Trapman

doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2014.05.002

Challenges for stochastic epidemic models involving global transmission

T Britton, T House, A L Lloyd, D Mollison, S Riley, P Trapman

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

The most basic stochastic epidemic models are those involving global transmission, meaning that infection rates depend only on the type and state of the individuals involved, and not on their location in the population. Simple as they are, there are still several open problems for such models. For example, when will such an epidemic go extinct and with what probability (questions depending on the population being fixed, changing or growing)? How can a model be defined explaining the sometimes observed scenario of frequent mid-sized epidemic outbreaks? How can evolution of the infectious agent transmission rates be modelled and fitted to data in a robust way?

Original language	English
Journal	Epidemics
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2014.05.002
Publication status	Published - 2014

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10.1016/j.epidem.2014.05.002

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title = "Challenges for stochastic epidemic models involving global transmission",

abstract = "The most basic stochastic epidemic models are those involving global transmission, meaning that infection rates depend only on the type and state of the individuals involved, and not on their location in the population. Simple as they are, there are still several open problems for such models. For example, when will such an epidemic go extinct and with what probability (questions depending on the population being fixed, changing or growing)? How can a model be defined explaining the sometimes observed scenario of frequent mid-sized epidemic outbreaks? How can evolution of the infectious agent transmission rates be modelled and fitted to data in a robust way?",

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language = "English",

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AU - House, T

AU - Lloyd, A L

AU - Mollison, D

AU - Riley, S

AU - Trapman, P

PY - 2014

Y1 - 2014

N2 - The most basic stochastic epidemic models are those involving global transmission, meaning that infection rates depend only on the type and state of the individuals involved, and not on their location in the population. Simple as they are, there are still several open problems for such models. For example, when will such an epidemic go extinct and with what probability (questions depending on the population being fixed, changing or growing)? How can a model be defined explaining the sometimes observed scenario of frequent mid-sized epidemic outbreaks? How can evolution of the infectious agent transmission rates be modelled and fitted to data in a robust way?

AB - The most basic stochastic epidemic models are those involving global transmission, meaning that infection rates depend only on the type and state of the individuals involved, and not on their location in the population. Simple as they are, there are still several open problems for such models. For example, when will such an epidemic go extinct and with what probability (questions depending on the population being fixed, changing or growing)? How can a model be defined explaining the sometimes observed scenario of frequent mid-sized epidemic outbreaks? How can evolution of the infectious agent transmission rates be modelled and fitted to data in a robust way?

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DO - 10.1016/j.epidem.2014.05.002

M3 - Article

SN - 1878-0067

JO - Epidemics

JF - Epidemics

ER -

Challenges for stochastic epidemic models involving global transmission

Abstract

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