Challenges in control of Covid-19: short doubling time and long delay to effect of interventions

Lorenzo Pellis; Francesca Scarabel; Helena B. Stage; Christopher E. Overton; Lauren H. K. Chappell; Katrina A. Lythgoe; Elizabeth Fearon; Emma Bennett; Jacob Curran-Sebastian; Rajenki Das; Martyn Fyles; Hugo Lewkowicz; Xiaoxi Pang; Bindu Vekaria; Luke Webb; Thomas House; Ian Hall

Challenges in control of Covid-19: short doubling time and long delay to effect of interventions

Lorenzo Pellis, Francesca Scarabel, Helena B. Stage, Christopher E. Overton, Lauren H. K. Chappell, Katrina A. Lythgoe, Elizabeth Fearon, Emma Bennett, Jacob Curran-Sebastian, Rajenki Das, Martyn Fyles, Hugo Lewkowicz, Xiaoxi Pang, Bindu Vekaria, Luke Webb, Thomas House, Ian Hall

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Abstract

Early assessments of the spreading rate of COVID-19 were subject to significant uncertainty, as expected with limited data and difficulties in case ascertainment, but more reliable inferences can now be made. Here, we estimate from European data that COVID-19 cases are expected to double initially every three days, until social distancing interventions slow this growth, and that the impact of such measures is typically only seen nine days - i.e. three doubling times - after their implementation. We argue that such temporal patterns are more critical than precise estimates of the basic reproduction number for initiating interventions. This observation has particular implications for the low- and middle-income countries currently in the early stages of their local epidemics.

Original language	English
Journal	medRxiv
Publication status	Published - 31 Mar 2020

Keywords

q-bio.PE

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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2004.00117v1Final published version, 2.2 MBLicence: CC BY-NC-ND

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.12.20059972v2Licence: CC BY-NC-ND

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Pellis, L., Scarabel, F., Stage, H. B., Overton, C. E., Chappell, L. H. K., Lythgoe, K. A., Fearon, E., Bennett, E., Curran-Sebastian, J., Das, R., Fyles, M., Lewkowicz, H., Pang, X., Vekaria, B., Webb, L., House, T., & Hall, I. (2020). Challenges in control of Covid-19: short doubling time and long delay to effect of interventions. medRxiv. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.12.20059972v2

@article{08082743032c49dd8b2ed070e6d0254d,

title = "Challenges in control of Covid-19: short doubling time and long delay to effect of interventions",

abstract = " Early assessments of the spreading rate of COVID-19 were subject to significant uncertainty, as expected with limited data and difficulties in case ascertainment, but more reliable inferences can now be made. Here, we estimate from European data that COVID-19 cases are expected to double initially every three days, until social distancing interventions slow this growth, and that the impact of such measures is typically only seen nine days - i.e. three doubling times - after their implementation. We argue that such temporal patterns are more critical than precise estimates of the basic reproduction number for initiating interventions. This observation has particular implications for the low- and middle-income countries currently in the early stages of their local epidemics. ",

keywords = "q-bio.PE",

author = "Lorenzo Pellis and Francesca Scarabel and Stage, {Helena B.} and Overton, {Christopher E.} and Chappell, {Lauren H. K.} and Lythgoe, {Katrina A.} and Elizabeth Fearon and Emma Bennett and Jacob Curran-Sebastian and Rajenki Das and Martyn Fyles and Hugo Lewkowicz and Xiaoxi Pang and Bindu Vekaria and Luke Webb and Thomas House and Ian Hall",

note = "Main text: 13 pages (1-13), 3 figures, 1 table; Supplementary Information: 9 pages (14-22), 4 figures, 1 table",

year = "2020",

month = mar,

day = "31",

language = "English",

journal = "medRxiv",

publisher = "Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press",

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Pellis, L, Scarabel, F, Stage, HB, Overton, CE, Chappell, LHK, Lythgoe, KA, Fearon, E, Bennett, E, Curran-Sebastian, J, Das, R, Fyles, M, Lewkowicz, H, Pang, X, Vekaria, B, Webb, L, House, T & Hall, I 2020, 'Challenges in control of Covid-19: short doubling time and long delay to effect of interventions', medRxiv. <https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.12.20059972v2>

TY - JOUR

T1 - Challenges in control of Covid-19

T2 - short doubling time and long delay to effect of interventions

AU - Pellis, Lorenzo

AU - Scarabel, Francesca

AU - Stage, Helena B.

AU - Overton, Christopher E.

AU - Chappell, Lauren H. K.

AU - Lythgoe, Katrina A.

AU - Fearon, Elizabeth

AU - Bennett, Emma

AU - Curran-Sebastian, Jacob

AU - Das, Rajenki

AU - Fyles, Martyn

AU - Lewkowicz, Hugo

AU - Pang, Xiaoxi

AU - Vekaria, Bindu

AU - Webb, Luke

AU - House, Thomas

AU - Hall, Ian

N1 - Main text: 13 pages (1-13), 3 figures, 1 table; Supplementary Information: 9 pages (14-22), 4 figures, 1 table

PY - 2020/3/31

Y1 - 2020/3/31

N2 - Early assessments of the spreading rate of COVID-19 were subject to significant uncertainty, as expected with limited data and difficulties in case ascertainment, but more reliable inferences can now be made. Here, we estimate from European data that COVID-19 cases are expected to double initially every three days, until social distancing interventions slow this growth, and that the impact of such measures is typically only seen nine days - i.e. three doubling times - after their implementation. We argue that such temporal patterns are more critical than precise estimates of the basic reproduction number for initiating interventions. This observation has particular implications for the low- and middle-income countries currently in the early stages of their local epidemics.

AB - Early assessments of the spreading rate of COVID-19 were subject to significant uncertainty, as expected with limited data and difficulties in case ascertainment, but more reliable inferences can now be made. Here, we estimate from European data that COVID-19 cases are expected to double initially every three days, until social distancing interventions slow this growth, and that the impact of such measures is typically only seen nine days - i.e. three doubling times - after their implementation. We argue that such temporal patterns are more critical than precise estimates of the basic reproduction number for initiating interventions. This observation has particular implications for the low- and middle-income countries currently in the early stages of their local epidemics.

KW - q-bio.PE

M3 - Article

JO - medRxiv

JF - medRxiv

ER -

Challenges in control of Covid-19: short doubling time and long delay to effect of interventions

Abstract

Keywords

UN SDGs

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