Climate change & carbon budgets: implications for a growing aviation industry

For global mean temperatures to remain below the widely cited 2C threshold between dangerous and acceptable climate change, annual emission reductions of an unprecedented scale are required over the coming decades. Yet, even within industrialising nations, two sectors in particular, international aviation and shipping, anticipate a medium-term continuation of emissions growth. At the scale of analysis, it is unimportant which sectors reduce their emissions, as long as the relevant carbon budget is not exceeded. In this regard, those sectors with the lowest abatement costs are likely to make a much greater emission reduction than sectors with significant technological and socio-economic barriers to emission reduction. Yet the scale of growth anticipated within aviation (and shipping), without technological step changes in the short-term, places significant additional pressure on other sectors to mitigate. Given the overarching climate change challenge, this paper explores the available space for growth for global aviation given the likely managerial and technological efficiency and carbon intensity improvements to aircraft and management systems, coupled with anticipated growth rates. The results illustrate the necessity for urgent and effective policies on emission mitigation for international aviation in the short-to-medium term, if the 2C target is to remain an achievable goal.