Climate Change Under Fossil Fuel Intensive Development

This research briefing, commissioned by Oxfam GB, gathers evidence on the likely impacts of climate change if the global energy system continues on a fossil fuel dominated pathway. It explores the viability and potential impacts of greenhouse gas emissions, specifically energy related carbon dioxide, at rates in excess of those captured within the “Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5” (RCP8.5). The four RCP families provide twenty-first century emission pathways and are used widely as inputs to climate models and policy analysis. As such they explicitly or implicitly frame virtually all current discussion on climate change. The pathway with the highest level of carbon emissions and hence temperature-related impacts is RCP8.5, which, although derived through a different process, is very similar to the IPCC’s previous higher-end emission scenario, A1FI. Consequently, the IPCC process has and continues to be informed by a particular view as to the ceiling of emissions envisaged for the century.The briefing that follows is broadly divided into three parts. The first considers emissions scenarios of fossil intensive development, how they relate to recent trends in consumption and estimates of remaining fossil fuel resources. The second section considers the likely impact of these emissions in terms of the extent of climate change and the possibility of irreversible changes in the climate system. Finally, the third section examines the consequences for poor and vulnerable communities in developing countries.This report offers an overview of recent research in the academic and climate policy literature. It does not provide any new empirical evidence although additional calculations have been performed in some circumstances to allow comparison between studies.