Cohort Differences in the Lifetime Parenthood Gender Pay Gap in the UK: An Accelerated Cohort‑Sequential Growth Curve Approach

This paper investigates the cohort differences in the development of the lifetime parenthood gender earnings gap in the UK and the crucial role education plays as a potential moderator. Recent cohorts (born in 1980 onwards) have faced multiple challenges against the backdrop of the introduction of university tuition fees in 1998, and the growth in the proportion of degree holders. The intensification of neoliberal reforms not only levied high costs on educational opportunities, but also exposed recent cohorts to intense competition in the
labour market. Combined with the UK’s sustained liberal market-oriented family policy characterised by limited childcare support, younger generations were found to be relatively worse off. By applying the under-utilised accelerated cohort sequential design to multilevel growth curve modelling, this study offers a clear methodological link between multilevel and accelerated longitudinal frameworks with respect to within- and between-person time effects. As demonstrated by the novel application of the accelerated cohort sequential
design, this study reports cohort effects isolated from competing time dimensions. The steady improvement in the gender pay gap over the last two decades masks the bleak projection of recent cohorts’ lifetime earnings. Unless the pace of recent cohorts keeps up with the moving goalposts propelled by social changes, young cohorts will be worse off than their parents’ generations.