Deep green or white hot? The future of Oxford Road Corridor in Manchester, UK

The Oxford Road Corridor (The Corridor) is a major transport link running into Manchester city centre. This densely built-up area covers 270 hectares, includes universities, hospitals, museums and theatres, and provides a workplace for around 37,000 people. The Corridor is the subject of major redevelopment efforts. One of the key aspirations is to maintain and enhance the provision of green infrastructure. However, the area is also under considerable pressure from development, which may result in loss of green spaces. One of the arguments for improved vegetation cover is adaptation to increased summer temperatures expected with climate change projections, which are further exacerbated by the Urban Heat Island effect. The EcoCities project at the University of Manchester is investigating climate change impacts on Greater Manchester, and aims to inform the development of adaptation responses for the built environment, with a particular focus on the use of green infrastructure. The Corridor is a key case study being explored by EcoCities. This paper reports on an analysis of the current and possible future changes in land cover along The Corridor. Future development scenarios associated with different amounts of green infrastructure in The Corridor were created, and run through an energy exchange model, with current and future climate projections data, in order to calculate the change in surface temperature related to different development and climate change scenarios. Conclusions are drawn relating to assessing the contribution of increasing green infrastructure in The Corridor to cooling the urban environment and assisting in adapting to climate change impacts. It is hoped that the findings will facilitate a discussion amongst relevant stakeholders about costs and benefits of different models of development in The Corridor in relation to green infrastructure provision. The project has the potential to inform adaptation of The Corridor to climate change, and therefore the creation of a more liveable environment.