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Detecting the presence of a random drift in Brownian motion

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Abstract

Consider a standard Brownian motion in one dimension, having either a zero drift, or a non-zero drift that is randomly distributed according to a known probability law. Following the motion in real time, the problem is to detect as soon as possible and with minimal probabilities of the wrong terminal decisions, whether a non-zero drift is present in the observed motion. We solve this problem for a class of admissible laws in the Bayesian formulation, under any prior probability of the non-zero drift being present in the motion, when the passage of time is penalised linearly.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1068-1090
Number of pages23
JournalStochastic Processes and their Applications
Volume150
Early online date6 Jun 2021
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Aug 2022

Keywords

  • Brownian motion
  • Free-boundary problem
  • Optimal stopping
  • Parabolic partial differential equation
  • Random drift
  • Sequential testing

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