Abstract
Consider a standard Brownian motion in one dimension, having either a zero drift, or a non-zero drift that is randomly distributed according to a known probability law. Following the motion in real time, the problem is to detect as soon as possible and with minimal probabilities of the wrong terminal decisions, whether a non-zero drift is present in the observed motion. We solve this problem for a class of admissible laws in the Bayesian formulation, under any prior probability of the non-zero drift being present in the motion, when the passage of time is penalised linearly.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 1068-1090 |
| Number of pages | 23 |
| Journal | Stochastic Processes and their Applications |
| Volume | 150 |
| Early online date | 6 Jun 2021 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 1 Aug 2022 |
Keywords
- Brownian motion
- Free-boundary problem
- Optimal stopping
- Parabolic partial differential equation
- Random drift
- Sequential testing
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