Developing a self-reported comorbidity index to predict mortality of community-dwelling older adults

Md Yuzaiful Md Yusof, Michael Arthur Horan, Maureen Jones, Lynn McInnes, Patrick M A Rabbitt, Neil Pendleton

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

    Abstract

    Current common comorbidity measures have poor to moderate predictive validity of mortality of community-dwelling older adults. Hence, our aim is to develop a simpler resource-efficient self-reported comorbidity index in the prediction of survival. 113 older adults in Greater Manchester, United Kingdom attended a routine medical examination whereby information gathered was used to construct Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI). They completed the Cornell Medical Index (CMI) questionnaire and reported the number of medication prescribed to them. We compared the ability of CCI, CMI, number of medication, age and sex to predict mortality of the sample over 7-year period using Cox-regression and Kaplan-Meier plot and rank test. None of the variables individually was significant when tested using either Cox-regression via ENTER method or Kaplan-Meier test. Remarkably, by means of forward step-wise Cox-regression, two variables emerged significant: (i) number of medicine (beta coefficient = 0.229, SE = 0.090 and p = 0.011) and (ii) age (beta coefficient = 0.106, SE = 0.051 and p = 0.037). We demonstrated that simple count of medication predicted mortality of community-dwelling older adults over the next 7 years more accurately than CMI or CCI. Further works involving a larger scale of subjects is needed for use in epidemiological study of survival where cost and resources are concerned. © 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)e63-e67
    JournalArchives of Gerontology and Geriatrics
    Volume50
    Issue number3
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - May 2010

    Keywords

    • Comorbidity
    • Cornell Medical Index
    • Number of medicine
    • Survival

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