Development of a Pediatric Ebola Predictive Score, Sierra Leone

Felicity Fitzgerald; Kevin Wing; Asad Naveed; Musa Gbessay; J C G Ross; Francesco Checchi; Daniel Youkee; Mohamed Boie Jalloh; David E Baion; Ayeshatu Mustapha; Hawanatu Jah; Sandra Lako; Shefali Oza; Sabah Boufkhed; Reynold Feury; Julia Bielicki; Elizabeth Williamson; Diana M Gibb; Nigel Klein; Foday Sahr; Shunmay Yeung

doi:10.3201/eid2402.171018

Development of a Pediatric Ebola Predictive Score, Sierra Leone

Felicity Fitzgerald, Kevin Wing, Asad Naveed, Musa Gbessay, J C G Ross, Francesco Checchi, Daniel Youkee, Mohamed Boie Jalloh, David E Baion, Ayeshatu Mustapha, Hawanatu Jah, Sandra Lako, Shefali Oza, Sabah Boufkhed, Reynold Feury, Julia Bielicki, Elizabeth Williamson, Diana M Gibb, Nigel Klein, Foday SahrShunmay Yeung

Humanitarian Conflict Response Institute

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

We compared children who were positive for Ebola virus disease (EVD) with those who were negative to derive a pediatric EVD predictor (PEP) score. We collected data on all children <13 years of age admitted to 11 Ebola holding units in Sierra Leone during August 2014-March 2015 and performed multivariable logistic regression. Among 1,054 children, 309 (29%) were EVD positive and 697 (66%) EVD negative, with 48 (5%) missing. Contact history, conjunctivitis, and age were the strongest positive predictors for EVD. The PEP score had an area under receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.80. A PEP score of 7/10 was 92% specific and 44% sensitive; 3/10 was 30% specific, 94% sensitive. The PEP score could correctly classify 79%-90% of children and could be used to facilitate triage into risk categories, depending on the sensitivity or specificity required.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	311-319
Number of pages	9
Journal	Emerging infectious diseases
Volume	24
Issue number	2
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2402.171018
Publication status	Published - 1 Feb 2018

Keywords

Adolescent
Child
Child, Preschool
Cohort Studies
Disease Outbreaks
Ebolavirus
Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/diagnosis
Humans
Infant
Retrospective Studies
Risk Factors
Sierra Leone/epidemiology

Research Beacons, Institutes and Platforms

Humanitarian and Conflict Response Institute

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.3201/eid2402.171018

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Fitzgerald, F., Wing, K., Naveed, A., Gbessay, M., Ross, J. C. G., Checchi, F., Youkee, D., Jalloh, M. B., Baion, D. E., Mustapha, A., Jah, H., Lako, S., Oza, S., Boufkhed, S., Feury, R., Bielicki, J., Williamson, E., Gibb, D. M., Klein, N., ... Yeung, S. (2018). Development of a Pediatric Ebola Predictive Score, Sierra Leone. Emerging infectious diseases, 24(2), 311-319. https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2402.171018

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title = "Development of a Pediatric Ebola Predictive Score, Sierra Leone",

abstract = "We compared children who were positive for Ebola virus disease (EVD) with those who were negative to derive a pediatric EVD predictor (PEP) score. We collected data on all children <13 years of age admitted to 11 Ebola holding units in Sierra Leone during August 2014-March 2015 and performed multivariable logistic regression. Among 1,054 children, 309 (29%) were EVD positive and 697 (66%) EVD negative, with 48 (5%) missing. Contact history, conjunctivitis, and age were the strongest positive predictors for EVD. The PEP score had an area under receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.80. A PEP score of 7/10 was 92% specific and 44% sensitive; 3/10 was 30% specific, 94% sensitive. The PEP score could correctly classify 79%-90% of children and could be used to facilitate triage into risk categories, depending on the sensitivity or specificity required.",

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doi = "10.3201/eid2402.171018",

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Fitzgerald, F, Wing, K, Naveed, A, Gbessay, M, Ross, JCG, Checchi, F, Youkee, D, Jalloh, MB, Baion, DE, Mustapha, A, Jah, H, Lako, S, Oza, S, Boufkhed, S, Feury, R, Bielicki, J, Williamson, E, Gibb, DM, Klein, N, Sahr, F & Yeung, S 2018, 'Development of a Pediatric Ebola Predictive Score, Sierra Leone', Emerging infectious diseases, vol. 24, no. 2, pp. 311-319. https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2402.171018

TY - JOUR

T1 - Development of a Pediatric Ebola Predictive Score, Sierra Leone

AU - Fitzgerald, Felicity

AU - Wing, Kevin

AU - Naveed, Asad

AU - Gbessay, Musa

AU - Ross, J C G

AU - Checchi, Francesco

AU - Youkee, Daniel

AU - Jalloh, Mohamed Boie

AU - Baion, David E

AU - Mustapha, Ayeshatu

AU - Jah, Hawanatu

AU - Lako, Sandra

AU - Oza, Shefali

AU - Boufkhed, Sabah

AU - Feury, Reynold

AU - Bielicki, Julia

AU - Williamson, Elizabeth

AU - Gibb, Diana M

AU - Klein, Nigel

AU - Sahr, Foday

AU - Yeung, Shunmay

PY - 2018/2/1

Y1 - 2018/2/1

N2 - We compared children who were positive for Ebola virus disease (EVD) with those who were negative to derive a pediatric EVD predictor (PEP) score. We collected data on all children <13 years of age admitted to 11 Ebola holding units in Sierra Leone during August 2014-March 2015 and performed multivariable logistic regression. Among 1,054 children, 309 (29%) were EVD positive and 697 (66%) EVD negative, with 48 (5%) missing. Contact history, conjunctivitis, and age were the strongest positive predictors for EVD. The PEP score had an area under receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.80. A PEP score of 7/10 was 92% specific and 44% sensitive; 3/10 was 30% specific, 94% sensitive. The PEP score could correctly classify 79%-90% of children and could be used to facilitate triage into risk categories, depending on the sensitivity or specificity required.

AB - We compared children who were positive for Ebola virus disease (EVD) with those who were negative to derive a pediatric EVD predictor (PEP) score. We collected data on all children <13 years of age admitted to 11 Ebola holding units in Sierra Leone during August 2014-March 2015 and performed multivariable logistic regression. Among 1,054 children, 309 (29%) were EVD positive and 697 (66%) EVD negative, with 48 (5%) missing. Contact history, conjunctivitis, and age were the strongest positive predictors for EVD. The PEP score had an area under receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.80. A PEP score of 7/10 was 92% specific and 44% sensitive; 3/10 was 30% specific, 94% sensitive. The PEP score could correctly classify 79%-90% of children and could be used to facilitate triage into risk categories, depending on the sensitivity or specificity required.

KW - Adolescent

KW - Child

KW - Child, Preschool

KW - Cohort Studies

KW - Disease Outbreaks

KW - Ebolavirus

KW - Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola/diagnosis

KW - Humans

KW - Infant

KW - Retrospective Studies

KW - Risk Factors

KW - Sierra Leone/epidemiology

U2 - 10.3201/eid2402.171018

DO - 10.3201/eid2402.171018

M3 - Article

C2 - 29350145

SN - 1080-6040

VL - 24

SP - 311

EP - 319

JO - Emerging infectious diseases

JF - Emerging infectious diseases

IS - 2

ER -

Development of a Pediatric Ebola Predictive Score, Sierra Leone

Abstract

Keywords

Research Beacons, Institutes and Platforms

UN SDGs

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