Abstract
In this paper I offer a fairly complete account of the idea of social discount rates as applied to public policy analysis. I show that those rates are neither ethical primitives nor observables as market rates of return on investment, but that they ought instead to be derived from economic forecasts and society's conception of distributive justice concerning the allocation of goods and services across personal identities, time, and events. However, I also show that if future uncertainties are large, the formulation of intergenerational well-being we economists have grown used to could lead to ethical paradoxes even if the uncertainties are thin-tailed. Various modelling avenues that offer a way out of the dilemma are discussed. None is entirely satisfactory. © Springer Science + Business Media, LLC 2008.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 141-169 |
| Number of pages | 28 |
| Journal | Journal of Risk and Uncertainty |
| Volume | 37 |
| Issue number | 2-3 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - Dec 2008 |
Keywords
- Hyperbolic discounting
- Inequality aversion
- Intergenerational well-being
- Precautionary principle
- Prioritarianism
- Rate of return on investment
- Rate of time preference
- Risk aversion
- Social discount rates
- Uncertainty
- Utilitarianism
