Dynamic evidential reasoning algorithm for systems reliability prediction

Chang Hua Hu, Xiao Sheng Si, Jian Bo Yang

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


    In this article, dynamic evidential reasoning (DER) algorithm is applied to forecast reliability in turbochargers engine systems and a reliability prediction model is developed. The focus of this study is to examine the feasibility and validity of DER algorithm in systems reliability prediction by comparing it with some existing approaches. To build an effective DER forecasting model, the parameters of prediction model must be set carefully. To solve this problem, a generic nonlinear optimisation model is investigated to search for the optimal parameters of forecasting model, and then the optimal parameters are adopted to construct the DER forecasting model. Finally, a numerical example is provided to demonstrate the detailed implementation procedures and the validity of the proposed approach in the areas of reliability prediction. © 2010 Taylor & Francis.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)783-796
    Number of pages13
    JournalInternational Journal of Systems Science
    Issue number7
    Publication statusPublished - Jul 2010


    • Dynamic evidential reasoning
    • Forecasting
    • Nonlinear optimisation
    • Reliability
    • Utility


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