Eliminating the shortage of registered nurses in Canada: an exercise in applied needs-based planning

Gail Tomblin Murphy; Stephen Birch; Adrian MacKenzie; Rob Alder; Lynn Lethbridge; Lisa Little

doi:10.1016/j.healthpol.2011.11.009

Eliminating the shortage of registered nurses in Canada: an exercise in applied needs-based planning

Gail Tomblin Murphy, Stephen Birch, Adrian MacKenzie, Rob Alder, Lynn Lethbridge, Lisa Little

Dalhousie University

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

OBJECTIVE: To demonstrate the application of a needs-based framework for health human resources (HHR) planning to illustrate the potential effects of policies on the shortage of Registered Nurses (RNs) in Canada.

METHODS: A simulation model was developed to simultaneously estimate the supply of and requirements for RNs based on data on the health needs of Canadians with current service delivery patterns and levels of productivity as a baseline scenario. The potential individual and cumulative effects of various policy scenarios on the 'gap' between these were simulated.

RESULTS: A baseline scenario estimated a shortage of about 11,000 RN FTEs in 2007 for Canada, increasing to over 60,000 by 2022. However, multifaceted approaches have the potential to eliminate the estimated shortage.

CONCLUSIONS: Estimating the requirements for health human resources must explicitly consider population health needs, levels of service delivery and HHR productivity while changing supply to meet requirements involves consideration of a broad range of comprehensive interventions. Investments in improved data collection and planning tools are needed to support more effective HHR planning. The estimated Canadian shortage of RNs based on current circumstances can be resolved in the short to medium tern through modest improvements in RN retention, activity and productivity.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	192-202
Number of pages	11
Journal	Health Policy
Volume	105
Issue number	2-3
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.healthpol.2011.11.009 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.healthpol.2011.11.009
Publication status	Published - May 2012

Keywords

Canada
Education, Nursing/statistics & numerical data
Health Planning/methods
Health Policy
Health Services Needs and Demand
Humans
Nurses/statistics & numerical data
Nursing Care/statistics & numerical data

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title = "Eliminating the shortage of registered nurses in Canada: an exercise in applied needs-based planning",

abstract = "OBJECTIVE: To demonstrate the application of a needs-based framework for health human resources (HHR) planning to illustrate the potential effects of policies on the shortage of Registered Nurses (RNs) in Canada.METHODS: A simulation model was developed to simultaneously estimate the supply of and requirements for RNs based on data on the health needs of Canadians with current service delivery patterns and levels of productivity as a baseline scenario. The potential individual and cumulative effects of various policy scenarios on the 'gap' between these were simulated.RESULTS: A baseline scenario estimated a shortage of about 11,000 RN FTEs in 2007 for Canada, increasing to over 60,000 by 2022. However, multifaceted approaches have the potential to eliminate the estimated shortage.CONCLUSIONS: Estimating the requirements for health human resources must explicitly consider population health needs, levels of service delivery and HHR productivity while changing supply to meet requirements involves consideration of a broad range of comprehensive interventions. Investments in improved data collection and planning tools are needed to support more effective HHR planning. The estimated Canadian shortage of RNs based on current circumstances can be resolved in the short to medium tern through modest improvements in RN retention, activity and productivity.",

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author = "{Tomblin Murphy}, Gail and Stephen Birch and Adrian MacKenzie and Rob Alder and Lynn Lethbridge and Lisa Little",

year = "2012",

month = may,

doi = "10.1016/j.healthpol.2011.11.009",

language = "English",

volume = "105",

pages = "192--202",

journal = "Health Policy",

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AU - Birch, Stephen

AU - MacKenzie, Adrian

AU - Alder, Rob

AU - Lethbridge, Lynn

AU - Little, Lisa

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N2 - OBJECTIVE: To demonstrate the application of a needs-based framework for health human resources (HHR) planning to illustrate the potential effects of policies on the shortage of Registered Nurses (RNs) in Canada.METHODS: A simulation model was developed to simultaneously estimate the supply of and requirements for RNs based on data on the health needs of Canadians with current service delivery patterns and levels of productivity as a baseline scenario. The potential individual and cumulative effects of various policy scenarios on the 'gap' between these were simulated.RESULTS: A baseline scenario estimated a shortage of about 11,000 RN FTEs in 2007 for Canada, increasing to over 60,000 by 2022. However, multifaceted approaches have the potential to eliminate the estimated shortage.CONCLUSIONS: Estimating the requirements for health human resources must explicitly consider population health needs, levels of service delivery and HHR productivity while changing supply to meet requirements involves consideration of a broad range of comprehensive interventions. Investments in improved data collection and planning tools are needed to support more effective HHR planning. The estimated Canadian shortage of RNs based on current circumstances can be resolved in the short to medium tern through modest improvements in RN retention, activity and productivity.

AB - OBJECTIVE: To demonstrate the application of a needs-based framework for health human resources (HHR) planning to illustrate the potential effects of policies on the shortage of Registered Nurses (RNs) in Canada.METHODS: A simulation model was developed to simultaneously estimate the supply of and requirements for RNs based on data on the health needs of Canadians with current service delivery patterns and levels of productivity as a baseline scenario. The potential individual and cumulative effects of various policy scenarios on the 'gap' between these were simulated.RESULTS: A baseline scenario estimated a shortage of about 11,000 RN FTEs in 2007 for Canada, increasing to over 60,000 by 2022. However, multifaceted approaches have the potential to eliminate the estimated shortage.CONCLUSIONS: Estimating the requirements for health human resources must explicitly consider population health needs, levels of service delivery and HHR productivity while changing supply to meet requirements involves consideration of a broad range of comprehensive interventions. Investments in improved data collection and planning tools are needed to support more effective HHR planning. The estimated Canadian shortage of RNs based on current circumstances can be resolved in the short to medium tern through modest improvements in RN retention, activity and productivity.

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KW - Health Services Needs and Demand

KW - Humans

KW - Nurses/statistics & numerical data

KW - Nursing Care/statistics & numerical data

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JO - Health Policy

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ER -

Eliminating the shortage of registered nurses in Canada: an exercise in applied needs-based planning

Abstract

Keywords

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