Evaluation of clinical prediction models (part 1): from development to external validation

Gary S Collins; Paula Dhiman; Jie Ma; Michael M Schlussel; Lucinda Archer; Ben Van Calster; Frank E Harrell; Glen P Martin; Karel G M Moons; Maarten van Smeden; Matthew Sperrin; Garrett S Bullock; Richard D Riley

doi:10.1136/bmj-2023-074819

Evaluation of clinical prediction models (part 1): from development to external validation

Gary S Collins, Paula Dhiman, Jie Ma, Michael M Schlussel, Lucinda Archer, Ben Van Calster, Frank E Harrell, Glen P Martin, Karel G M Moons, Maarten van Smeden, Matthew Sperrin, Garrett S Bullock, Richard D Riley

Division of Informatics, Imaging & Data Sciences (L5)

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

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Abstract

Evaluating the performance of a clinical prediction model is crucial to establish its predictive accuracy in the populations and settings intended for use. In this article, the first in a three part series, Collins and colleagues describe the importance of a meaningful evaluation using internal, internal-external, and external validation, as well as exploring heterogeneity, fairness, and generalisability in model performance.

Original language	English
Article number	e074819
Journal	British Medical Journal
Volume	384
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj-2023-074819
Publication status	Published - 8 Jan 2024

Keywords

Humans
Models, Statistical
Prognosis

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10.1136/bmj-2023-074819

Part 1 - validating_prediction_models SUBMITTED[75]Accepted author manuscript, 1.93 MBLicence: CC BY

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Collins, G. S., Dhiman, P., Ma, J., Schlussel, M. M., Archer, L., Van Calster, B., Harrell, F. E., Martin, G. P., Moons, K. G. M., van Smeden, M., Sperrin, M., Bullock, G. S., & Riley, R. D. (2024). Evaluation of clinical prediction models (part 1): from development to external validation. British Medical Journal, 384, Article e074819. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj-2023-074819

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AU - Archer, Lucinda

AU - Van Calster, Ben

AU - Harrell, Frank E

AU - Martin, Glen P

AU - Moons, Karel G M

AU - van Smeden, Maarten

AU - Sperrin, Matthew

AU - Bullock, Garrett S

AU - Riley, Richard D

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KW - Prognosis

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Evaluation of clinical prediction models (part 1): from development to external validation

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Keywords

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