Ever-faster, ever-shorter? Replacement cycles of durable goods in historical perspective

Predicted by popular theories of acceleration, such as the theory of planned obsolescence and the rise of a throwaway society, the ever-faster replacement of durable goods is widely assumed in the literature. This paper confronts this assumption with long-term empirical evidence from three distinct cases – wheat seeds, automobiles, and mobile phones. The cases show that there is no dominant logic or force underlying historical changes in product durability, lifespans, and replacement cycles. Neither are such changes entirely unpredictable: There are clear patterns where these phenomena go up or down for sustained periods of time. The observed patterns in replacement cycles call for an empirically grounded theory that can explain both periods of acceleration and deceleration and connect durable goods replacement decision-making with
developments at the aggregate level.