Fire in the UK Rural-Urban Interface: estimating avoided costs to residential property assets

Julia Mcmorrow, Nnaemeka Ihenacho

Research output: Contribution to conferencePoster

Abstract

Wildfire is already a significant problem in parts of the UK’s rural-urban interface (RUI). With escalating demand for housing, urban areas will continue to expand into the countryside, bringing sources of ignition closer to the fuel. This research aims to develop a method for mapping and costing residential property assets at risk for wildfire threat analysis in the RUI and estimating avoided economic losses under different fire spread scenarios. Types of RUI around Crowthorne Wood (Swinley Forest, Berkshire) will be mapped by adapting a GIS-based Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) model. House prices prior to the 2011 fire will be used to assign monetary values. Overlaying IRS wildfire locations will highlight ignition-prone RUI types. Fire footprints simulated for different weather scenarios using Prometheus fire spread modelling and the actual surveyed footprint (courtesy of Dr Thomas Smith, Kings College London, and the Forestry Commission, respectively) will be overlaid on the costed RUI map. Avoided costs are estimated by comparing costs of the property affected in actual and simulated fire footprints. Many assumptions are required, but a monetary estimate of what might have happened (costs avoided) would raise awareness of wildfire risk, help target prevention and help quantify the economic benefits of good wildfire risk management.
Original languageEnglish
Publication statusPublished - 2015
EventWildfires 2015 - Cambuslang, Glasgow
Duration: 10 Nov 201511 Nov 2015

Conference

ConferenceWildfires 2015
CityCambuslang, Glasgow
Period10/11/1511/11/15

Keywords

  • wildfire
  • Rural-urban interface (RUI)
  • forest fire
  • residential property
  • house prices
  • assets at risk
  • GIS
  • Prometheus fire spread modelling
  • fire footprint
  • Swinley Forest fire

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  • Wildfires 2015: The UK Wildfire Prevention Conference

    Bruce, M. (Chair), Stacey, R. (Member of programme committee), Mcmorrow, J. (Member of programme committee), Gazzard, R. (Other) & Hedley, P. (Other)

    9 Oct 201511 Nov 2015

    Activity: Participating in or organising event(s)Organising a conference, workshop, exhibition, performance, inquiry, course etcResearch

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