Forecasting of potential impacts of disruptive technology in promising technological areas: Elaborating the SIRS epidemic model in RFID technology

Yu Cheng, Lucheng Huang, Ronnie Ramlogan, Xin Li

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    Abstract

    Disruptive technology introduces new competitive platforms, possesses the ability of initiating new markets, and changes firms' technological competition status. Early identification of candidate application areas will allow for timely adjustment of technology innovation strategies and minimization of risks at firm level. This paper proposes a framework of application areas forecasting process for disruptive technology based on patent data. SIRS epidemic model is analogically introduced by measuring transition velocity of all the entities in the technology diffusion system respectively. We implement the model deterministically to forecast the potential of industrial and technological disruption in the short run, and stochastically to forecast the disruptive technology's major outbreak in candidate application areas in the long run. Radio-frequency identification technology is selected as case study. We conclude by discussing the major outbreak probabilities and potential disruptions of RFID in three different application areas. The results will provide practical suggestion to firms and other stakeholders to facilitate their strategy making when faced with disruptive technologies.

    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)170-183
    JournalTechnological Forecasting and Social Change
    Volume117
    Issue number0
    Early online date23 Dec 2016
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 1 Apr 2017

    Keywords

    • Application areas forecasting
    • Disruptive technology
    • Industrial disruption
    • SIRS epidemic model
    • Technological disruption
    • Technology forecasting

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