TY - JOUR
T1 - From Polls to Votes to Seats: Forecasting the 2015 British general election
AU - Ford, Robert
AU - Jennings, Will
AU - Pickup, Mark
AU - Wlezien, Christopher
PY - 2016
Y1 - 2016
N2 - This paper develops a three-stage method to forecast parliamentary election results from vote preferences in British opinion polls: (1) adjusting and aggregating vote-intentions from different polling organizations; (2) forecasting how public support for parties will change in the period before election day; and (3) translating, through simulations, the forecast of election day vote shares into seat totals while incorporating constituency-level information, including local vote-intention polls. Overall, this approach seeks to combine relevant national, regional and local information, and uncertainty about that information, to better reflect the fragmentation and diversity of political contexts found in the new era of five/six-party British politics
AB - This paper develops a three-stage method to forecast parliamentary election results from vote preferences in British opinion polls: (1) adjusting and aggregating vote-intentions from different polling organizations; (2) forecasting how public support for parties will change in the period before election day; and (3) translating, through simulations, the forecast of election day vote shares into seat totals while incorporating constituency-level information, including local vote-intention polls. Overall, this approach seeks to combine relevant national, regional and local information, and uncertainty about that information, to better reflect the fragmentation and diversity of political contexts found in the new era of five/six-party British politics
U2 - 10.1016/j.electstud.2015.11.013
DO - 10.1016/j.electstud.2015.11.013
M3 - Article
SN - 0261-3794
JO - Electoral Studies
JF - Electoral Studies
ER -