Generation adequacy in wind rich power systems: Comparison of analytical and simulation approaches

The analytical and simulation approaches used for generation adequacy assessment are reviewed in this paper in the context of large-scale wind penetration. The analytical approach applied by the UK system regulator and sequential Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) are compared based on a realistic model of the UK power system. It is found that the analytical approach yields a higher risk of security of supply compared to sequential MCS approach. This is due to the fact that the analytical approach fails to take into account the inherently chronological nature of wind power. A further contribution of this paper is the estimate of the duration and severity of single capacity shortfall provided via sequential MCS. This is essential to future networks in which alternative resources (mainly demand response and storage) can be deployed as proxies for capacity. Moreover, high impact and low probability events are captured properly through sequential MCS. A key conclusion of this paper is that sequential MCS should be applied to estimate generation adequacy as it provides more realistic results of the various indicators.