Abstract
In this paper, an intensive statistical analysis on the {UK} transmission power transformer historic reliability data is presented. It is shown that deriving the reliability of transformer at a certain age by simply calculating the hazard rate is inadequate, as the hazard rate in each age has a statistical range in which the confidence band width is related to the amount of the reliability data involved in that age. Since the post-mortem investigations on the failed units have verified that all failures up till now follow random failure mechanism, a general hazard rate of 0.27\% with standard deviation of 0.03\% has been derived for the {UK} transmission power transformers based on all the reliability data available. In term of data sufficiency, as supported by the hazard rate's confidence band analysis, only if the number of transformer at one age is more than 200 should the calculated hazard rate be reliable.
| Original language | English |
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| Title of host publication | Prognostics and System Health Management (PHM), 2012 IEEE Conference on |
| Pages | 1-6 |
| Number of pages | 6 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 2012 |
| Event | 2012 3rd Annual IEEE Prognostics and System Health Management Conference, PHM-2012 - Beijing Duration: 1 Jul 2012 → … |
Conference
| Conference | 2012 3rd Annual IEEE Prognostics and System Health Management Conference, PHM-2012 |
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| City | Beijing |
| Period | 1/07/12 → … |
Keywords
- confidence band
- confidence band analysis
- hazard rate
- poisson distribution
- Poisson processes
- power transformer historic reliability data
- power transformers
- reliability
- statistical analysis
- stochastic processes
- transformer reliability