Abstract
Irrigation plays a crucial role in mitigating the impacts of climate variability and extreme climate events on agricultural productivity, helping to limit drought risks and reduce yield volatility. Given projected increases in the frequency and magnitude drought and water risks to crop production, expansion and intensification of irrigation will be an important component of agricultural adaptation to climate extremes. At the same time, there are significant concerns about the impacts that increased dependence of agriculture on irrigation could have for water resource sustainability and freshwater-dependent ecosystems.
Understanding how climate extremes will alter the value of irrigation is critical for managing these trade-offs, and for supporting development of policies to deliver sustainable and efficient use of water in agriculture. Here, we develop a global gridded modeling framework based on the AquaCrop-OSPy model to estimate the impacts of climate change on the agronomic and economic return on investment from irrigation under multiple potential climate futures. Our initial analyses are focused on quantifying changes in the value added from irrigation for four major crop types – Maize, Wheat, Rice, and Soybean – across four shared socio-economic pathways— SSP245 (moderate), SSP370 (regional rivalry), and SSP5-8.5 (extreme) scenarios – drawing on downscaled climate projections from a range of CMIP6 models out to 2100.
Our analysis highlights hotspots of change in variability of irrigation across major agricultural production systems and hydrologic basins. Our results show that the value of irrigation is likely to increase not only in regions that are currently water stressed but also in those where irrigation has historically been more limited. Furthermore, we demonstrate a significant increase in the inter-annual volatility of irrigation value across many production regions globally, in particular driven by greater variability in precipitation and drought-related production risks. Our findings provide insights to guide the development of irrigation expansion strategies, while also highlighting potential areas where future increases in irrigation could increase potential for conflict over limited water resources.
Understanding how climate extremes will alter the value of irrigation is critical for managing these trade-offs, and for supporting development of policies to deliver sustainable and efficient use of water in agriculture. Here, we develop a global gridded modeling framework based on the AquaCrop-OSPy model to estimate the impacts of climate change on the agronomic and economic return on investment from irrigation under multiple potential climate futures. Our initial analyses are focused on quantifying changes in the value added from irrigation for four major crop types – Maize, Wheat, Rice, and Soybean – across four shared socio-economic pathways— SSP245 (moderate), SSP370 (regional rivalry), and SSP5-8.5 (extreme) scenarios – drawing on downscaled climate projections from a range of CMIP6 models out to 2100.
Our analysis highlights hotspots of change in variability of irrigation across major agricultural production systems and hydrologic basins. Our results show that the value of irrigation is likely to increase not only in regions that are currently water stressed but also in those where irrigation has historically been more limited. Furthermore, we demonstrate a significant increase in the inter-annual volatility of irrigation value across many production regions globally, in particular driven by greater variability in precipitation and drought-related production risks. Our findings provide insights to guide the development of irrigation expansion strategies, while also highlighting potential areas where future increases in irrigation could increase potential for conflict over limited water resources.
| Original language | English |
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| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 14 Mar 2025 |
