Hierarchical model for forecasting the outcomes of binary referenda

Arkadiusz Wiśniowski; Jakub Bijak; Jonathan J. Forster; Peter W F Smith

doi:10.1016/j.csda.2018.09.007

Hierarchical model for forecasting the outcomes of binary referenda

Arkadiusz Wiśniowski, Jakub Bijak, Jonathan J. Forster, Peter W F Smith

Social Statistics

University of Southampton

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

A Bayesian hierarchical model is proposed to forecast outcomes of binary referenda based on opinion poll data acquired over a period of time. It is demonstrated how the model provides a consistent probabilistic predictions of the final outcomes over the preceding months, effectively smoothing the volatility exhibited by individual polls. The method is illustrated using opinion poll data published before the Scottish independence referendum in 2014, in which Scotland voted to remain a part of the United Kingdom, and subsequently validate it on the data related to the 2016 referendum on the continuing membership of the United Kingdom in the European Union.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	90-103
Number of pages	14
Journal	Computational Statistics & Data Analysis
Volume	133
Early online date	27 Sept 2018
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csda.2018.09.007
Publication status	Published - May 2019

Keywords

Bayesian inference
Brexit
Forecasting
Opinion polls
Statistical modelling
United kingdom

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10.1016/j.csda.2018.09.007Licence: CC BY

Cite this

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abstract = "A Bayesian hierarchical model is proposed to forecast outcomes of binary referenda based on opinion poll data acquired over a period of time. It is demonstrated how the model provides a consistent probabilistic predictions of the final outcomes over the preceding months, effectively smoothing the volatility exhibited by individual polls. The method is illustrated using opinion poll data published before the Scottish independence referendum in 2014, in which Scotland voted to remain a part of the United Kingdom, and subsequently validate it on the data related to the 2016 referendum on the continuing membership of the United Kingdom in the European Union.",

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KW - Forecasting

KW - Opinion polls

KW - Statistical modelling

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ER -

Hierarchical model for forecasting the outcomes of binary referenda

Abstract

Keywords

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Data for: Hierarchical model for forecasting the outcomes of binary referenda

Scottish independence vote is too close to call

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Hierarchical model for forecasting the outcomes of binary referenda

Abstract

Keywords

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Data for: Hierarchical model for forecasting the outcomes of binary referenda

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Scottish independence vote is too close to call

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