How Do We Identify ‘At Risk’ Students Upon Entry To University?

We consider the reliability of different methods of identifying weaker students upon entry to a university Physics course. To that end three possible indicators of ‘at risk’ students are analysed: (i) Mathematics ‘A’ level module scores, (ii) Force concept inventory results and (iii) Mathematics diagnostic test marks. The results of all three assessments have been compared with the end of semester examination results for mathematics and for dynamics. Neither ‘A’ level module grades, nor the force concept inventory appear to be good indi- cators of potential weak performance. The mathematics diagnostic test, taken upon entry to university, is slightly better but the nature of the data precludes it from being used as a reliable predictor of weak final examination performance.