The installation of heat pumps, powered from clean electricity sources, will play a key role in heat decarbonisation. However, the resulting surge in electricity demand will put the existing transmission lines under enormous strain, increasing the risk of line overloading, potential failure and even loss of load events. This paper presents a probabilistic method for assessing line overload in integrated gas and electricity networks with the consideration of heat electrification. The established model fully considers the uncertainties associated with intermittent generation and fluctuating loads. The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified via its application in an integrated 9-bus electricity and 8-node gas network. Numerical results show that the overload probability of power lines and gas pipelines increases as a result of heat electrification. The overload probability further rises when the correlations of renewable generation and loads are considered, confirming the significance of modelling correlation for an accurate estimation of power and gas flows. The overload probability of some power lines and gas pipelines soar as they become disproportionately loaded, when considering an uneven distribution of heat loads (i.e., clustering of lowcarbon technologies) in the electricity network.
|Title of host publication||The 13th International IET MEDPOWER2022 Mediterranean Conference on Power Generation, Transmission, Distribution and Energy Conversion|
|Publication status||Accepted/In press - 31 Aug 2022|