Impact of circular economy measures in the European Union built environment on a net-zero target

Environmental benefits of circular economy (CE) measures, such as waste reduction, need to be weighed against the urgent need to reduce CO 2 emissions to zero, in line with the Paris Agreement climate goals of 1.5–2 °C. Several studies have quantified CO 2 emissions associated with CE measures in the construction sector in different EU countries, with the literature’s focus ranging from bricks and insulation products, to individual buildings, to the entire construction sector. We find that there is a lack of synthesis and comparison of such studies to each other and to the EU CO 2 emission reduction targets, showing a need for estimating the EU-wide mitigation potential of CE strategies. To evaluate the contribution that CE strategies can make to reducing the EU’s emissions, we scale up the CO 2 emission estimates from the existing studies to the EU level and compare them to each other, from both construction-element and sector-wide perspectives. Our analysis shows that average CO 2 savings from sector-wide estimates (mean 39.28 Mt CO 2 eq./year) slightly exceeded construction-element savings (mean 25.06 Mt CO 2 eq./year). We also find that a conservative estimate of 234 Mt CO 2 eq./year in combined emission savings from CE strategies targeting construction elements can significantly contribute towards managing the EU’s remaining carbon budget. While this is a significant mitigation potential, our analysis suggests caution as to how the performance and trade-offs of CE strategies are evaluated, in relation to wider sustainability concerns beyond material and waste considerations.