Impact of Rohingya Refugees on Food Prices in Bangladesh: Evidence from a Natural Experiment

Ashraful Alam; Indranil Dutta; M. Emranul Haque; Ricardo Nogales

doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2022.105873

Impact of Rohingya Refugees on Food Prices in Bangladesh: Evidence from a Natural Experiment

Ashraful Alam, Indranil Dutta, M. Emranul Haque, Ricardo Nogales

Economics

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Abstract

The Rohingya crisis is the fourth largest displacement of population in the world, with most refugees sheltering in neighbouring Bangladesh. We use this event as a natural experiment to examine the impact of the sudden influx of Rohingyas on food prices in the main host region of Bangladesh. We have pieced together a unique data set on food prices based on unpublished information at local government levels covering the pre- and post-influx period. We use a difference-in-difference approach to identify the impact of the refugee influx on the prices in the local area. Our baseline results indicate that overall food prices increased by 8 percent in the host sub-district of Ukhia, with prices of protein
and vegetables increasing by 7 and 36 percent, respectively. For aid-supplied food products, such as cereals and lentils, we do find a statistically significant mitigating effect on prices. However, they were not substantial enough to reverse the increase in food prices.

Original language	English
Article number	105873
Journal	World Development
Volume	154
Early online date	17 Mar 2022
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2022.105873
Publication status	Published - 1 Jun 2022

Keywords

Bangladesh
Difference in difference
Food prices
Refugees
Rohingya

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RohingyaADHN2022Accepted author manuscript, 1.52 MB

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title = "Impact of Rohingya Refugees on Food Prices in Bangladesh: Evidence from a Natural Experiment",

abstract = "The Rohingya crisis is the fourth largest displacement of population in the world, with most refugees sheltering in neighbouring Bangladesh. We use this event as a natural experiment to examine the impact of the sudden influx of Rohingyas on food prices in the main host region of Bangladesh. We have pieced together a unique data set on food prices based on unpublished information at local government levels covering the pre- and post-influx period. We use a difference-in-difference approach to identify the impact of the refugee influx on the prices in the local area. Our baseline results indicate that overall food prices increased by 8 percent in the host sub-district of Ukhia, with prices of proteinand vegetables increasing by 7 and 36 percent, respectively. For aid-supplied food products, such as cereals and lentils, we do find a statistically significant mitigating effect on prices. However, they were not substantial enough to reverse the increase in food prices.",

keywords = "Bangladesh, Difference in difference, Food prices, Refugees, Rohingya",

author = "Ashraful Alam and Indranil Dutta and Haque, {M. Emranul} and Ricardo Nogales",

note = "Funding Information: We are very grateful to three referees whose comments and suggestions have substantially improved the paper. For invaluable discussions, we would like to thank Upasak Das, Md. Shamsud Douza, Katsushi Imai, Simon Peters, Carlo Regianni, Mazhar Waseem and seminar participants at Institute of Economic Growth, India and Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies. We would also like to thank Md. Shahjahan Ali and Md. Selim Miah, District Marketing Officer of Cox's Bazar and Chittagong respectively, for their relentless support in collecting the price data that made this research possible. We are also thankful to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics for making available the Bangladesh Household Income and Expenditure Survey, 2016. The views expressed in this paper are the views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Government of Bangladesh. All the data and do files for this paper are available at https://github.com/IDCorner/Rohingya. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2022 Elsevier Ltd",

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AU - Alam, Ashraful

AU - Dutta, Indranil

AU - Haque, M. Emranul

AU - Nogales, Ricardo

N1 - Funding Information: We are very grateful to three referees whose comments and suggestions have substantially improved the paper. For invaluable discussions, we would like to thank Upasak Das, Md. Shamsud Douza, Katsushi Imai, Simon Peters, Carlo Regianni, Mazhar Waseem and seminar participants at Institute of Economic Growth, India and Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies. We would also like to thank Md. Shahjahan Ali and Md. Selim Miah, District Marketing Officer of Cox's Bazar and Chittagong respectively, for their relentless support in collecting the price data that made this research possible. We are also thankful to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics for making available the Bangladesh Household Income and Expenditure Survey, 2016. The views expressed in this paper are the views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Government of Bangladesh. All the data and do files for this paper are available at https://github.com/IDCorner/Rohingya. Publisher Copyright: © 2022 Elsevier Ltd

PY - 2022/6/1

Y1 - 2022/6/1

N2 - The Rohingya crisis is the fourth largest displacement of population in the world, with most refugees sheltering in neighbouring Bangladesh. We use this event as a natural experiment to examine the impact of the sudden influx of Rohingyas on food prices in the main host region of Bangladesh. We have pieced together a unique data set on food prices based on unpublished information at local government levels covering the pre- and post-influx period. We use a difference-in-difference approach to identify the impact of the refugee influx on the prices in the local area. Our baseline results indicate that overall food prices increased by 8 percent in the host sub-district of Ukhia, with prices of proteinand vegetables increasing by 7 and 36 percent, respectively. For aid-supplied food products, such as cereals and lentils, we do find a statistically significant mitigating effect on prices. However, they were not substantial enough to reverse the increase in food prices.

AB - The Rohingya crisis is the fourth largest displacement of population in the world, with most refugees sheltering in neighbouring Bangladesh. We use this event as a natural experiment to examine the impact of the sudden influx of Rohingyas on food prices in the main host region of Bangladesh. We have pieced together a unique data set on food prices based on unpublished information at local government levels covering the pre- and post-influx period. We use a difference-in-difference approach to identify the impact of the refugee influx on the prices in the local area. Our baseline results indicate that overall food prices increased by 8 percent in the host sub-district of Ukhia, with prices of proteinand vegetables increasing by 7 and 36 percent, respectively. For aid-supplied food products, such as cereals and lentils, we do find a statistically significant mitigating effect on prices. However, they were not substantial enough to reverse the increase in food prices.

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KW - Refugees

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VL - 154

JO - World Development

JF - World Development

M1 - 105873

ER -

Impact of Rohingya Refugees on Food Prices in Bangladesh: Evidence from a Natural Experiment

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Keywords

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