Incidence of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or worse in colposcopy-negative/human papillomavirus-positive women with low-grade cytological abnormalities

Objective To determine the risk of incident high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) in human papillomavirus (HPV) -positive women with low-grade cytological abnormalities who had a satisfactory normal colposcopy. Design A retrospective follow-up study within the NHS HPV/LBC pilot studies. Setting The NHS Cervical Screening Programme in England. Population A total of 1063 HPV-positive women with borderline or mild dyskaryosis who were negative at colposcopy from three sites within the NHS HPV/liquid-based cytology (LBC) pilot studies. Methods HPV triage took place in 2001/02. In 2009 all information on additional management on HPV-positive/colposcopy-negative women was requested. The rate of disease following a negative colposcopy was calculated, and survival analysis was used to determine whether the grade of referral cytology impacted on risk of subsequent disease. Results were compared with those in women from the same population who had not been HPV triaged. Main outcome measures Incident CIN2 or worse during follow up. Results Of 1063 eligible women 965 had documented follow up. The cumulative rate of CIN2+ at 3 years in these women was 4.4% (95% CI 4.0-7.0%); the median time from normal colposcopy to final result was 27 months. There was no significant increase in the risk of future disease associated with age or initial cytology result. Conclusions The rate of subsequent high-grade CIN among colposcopically negative triaged women was sufficiently low to justify return to routine recall. © 2011 RCOG.