Including suppression effectiveness in fireline growth models

The inclusion of suppression effectiveness in fireline growth models is formulated as a system of differential equations. The model draws on earlier ideas using ellipses to model fire growth, particularly the head fire and flank fire rates of spread. It combines this with recent studies of the effect of fireline on spread rate and appends a single equation for the increase of the suppressed part of the fireline with time. Representative parameter values are used to illustrate this way of describing the effect of fire suppression activities on the fireline and to develop criteria for the likely outcome of containment activities.