Integrated modelling of age and sex patterns of European migration

Arkadiusz Wiśniowski; Jonathan J. Forster; Peter W.F. Smith; Jakub Bijak; James Raymer

doi:10.1111/rssa.12177

Integrated modelling of age and sex patterns of European migration

Arkadiusz Wiśniowski
, Jonathan J. Forster
, Peter W.F. Smith
, Jakub Bijak
, James Raymer

Social Statistics

University of Southampton
Australian National University

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

Age and sex patterns of migration are essential for understanding drivers of population change and heterogeneity of migrant groups. We develop a hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate such patterns for international migration in the European Union and European Free Trade Association from 2002 to 2008, which was a period of time when the number of members expanded from 19 to 31 countries. Our model corrects for the inadequacies and inconsistencies in the available data and estimates the missing patterns. The posterior distributions of the age and sex profiles are then combined with a matrix of origin-destination flows, resulting in a synthetic database with measures of uncertainty for migration flows and other model parameters.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	1007-1024
Journal	Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A: Statistics in Society
Volume	179
Issue number	4
Early online date	22 Jan 2016
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1111/rssa.12177
Publication status	Published - 2016

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 10 Reduced Inequalities

Keywords

Bayesian modelling
Contingency tables
Europe
nternational migration statistics
Migration models

Access to Document

10.1111/rssa.12177Licence: CC BY

Contribution to the ESRC Outstanding Public Policy Impact Prize 2020 awarded to the ESRC Centre for Population Change, University of Southampton
Wisniowski, A. (Participant)
Impact: Technological impacts

Cite this

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AU - Forster, Jonathan J.

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AU - Bijak, Jakub

AU - Raymer, James

PY - 2016

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AB - Age and sex patterns of migration are essential for understanding drivers of population change and heterogeneity of migrant groups. We develop a hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate such patterns for international migration in the European Union and European Free Trade Association from 2002 to 2008, which was a period of time when the number of members expanded from 19 to 31 countries. Our model corrects for the inadequacies and inconsistencies in the available data and estimates the missing patterns. The posterior distributions of the age and sex profiles are then combined with a matrix of origin-destination flows, resulting in a synthetic database with measures of uncertainty for migration flows and other model parameters.

KW - Bayesian modelling

KW - Contingency tables

KW - Europe

KW - nternational migration statistics

KW - Migration models

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JF - Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A: Statistics in Society

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ER -

Integrated modelling of age and sex patterns of European migration

Abstract

UN SDGs

Keywords

Access to Document

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Impacts

Contribution to the ESRC Outstanding Public Policy Impact Prize 2020 awarded to the ESRC Centre for Population Change, University of Southampton

Cite this