Inward FDI spillovers and emerging multinationals’ outward FDI in two directions

Inward foreign direct investment (IFDI) carries critical implications for emerging market multinational enterprises’ (EMNEs’) outward foreign direct investment (OFDI). While extant research provides evidence for the positive linkage between IFDI and EMNEs’ OFDI, less is known about the directionality of such OFDI—where to go. This study aims to extend the IFDI-OFDI linkage by differentiating EMNEs’ upward and downward OFDI (i.e., OFDI projects in more and less advanced host countries than their home markets). Using panel data on 1334 Chinese multinationals, I find that IFDI promotes EMNEs’ upward OFDI, but this effect is weakened by state ownership and industry competition. Moreover, my findings show that although IFDI is not related to EMNEs’ downward OFDI in general, their linkage becomes positive in the conditions of higher state ownership or weaker industry competition. This study advances our understanding of the directionality (i.e., where to go) of EMNEs’ OFDI in the face of IFDI spillovers.