Abstract
Countries involved in conflicts learn about their military strength from the battlefield. We study how a third party intervenes to manipulate this learning. An attacker and a defender engage in a conflict whose outcome conveys information about the attacker’s strength. A third party worries that the attacker becomes more confident about its military strength and can intervene to help the defender. This intervention is risky: if the attacker wins despite the help the defender receives, its confidence increases even further. We show that optimal third-party intervention is non-monotonic in the attacker’s strength. We also show that a high level of patriotism and resolve to defend itself improve the defender’s odds in the conflict by inducing third-party intervention.
Original language | English |
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Journal | Journal of Public Economics |
Publication status | Accepted/In press - 8 Jan 2025 |
Keywords
- conflict, sanctions, third-party intervention