Methods: Using monthly district-level routine data from November 2016 to March 2020, we performed an uncontrolled interrupted time series analysis to assess changes in 10 maternal and child health indicators in all 25 districts before and after Idai. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical negative binomial model with district-level random intercepts and slopes to estimate Idai-related service disruptions and recovery.
Results: Of the 4.44 million people in Sofala and Manica, 1.83 (41.2%) million were affected. Buzi, Nhamatanda, and Dondo (all in Sofala province) had the highest proportion of people affected. After Idai, all 10 indicators showed an abrupt substantial decrease. First antenatal care visits per 100,000 women of reproductive age decreased by 23% (95% confidence interval [CI]=0.62, 0.96) in March and 11% (95% CI=0.75, 1.07) in April. BCG vaccinations per 1,000 children under age 5 years declined by 21% (95% CI=0.69, 0.90) and measles vaccinations decreased by 25% (95% CI=0.64, 0.87) in March and remained similar in April. Within 3 months post-cyclone, almost all districts recovered to preIdai levels, including Buzi, which showed a 22% and 13% relative increase in the number of first antenatal care visits and BCG, respectively.
Conclusion: We found substantial health service disruptions immediately after Idai, with greater impact in the most affected districts. The findings suggest impressive recovery post-Idai, emphasizing the need to build resilient health systems to ensure quality health care during and after natural disasters.
- BCG Vaccine
- Bayes Theorem
- Child Health
- Child, Preschool
- Cyclonic Storms
- Interrupted Time Series Analysis