Abstract
Employing historical records we are able to estimate the risk of premature death during the second plague pandemic, and identify the Black Death and pestis secunda epidemics. We show a novel method of calculating Bayesian credible intervals for a ratio of beta distributed random variables and use this to quantify uncertainty of relative risk estimates for these two epidemics which we consider in a 2 × 2 contingency table framework.
Original language | English |
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Journal | P L o S One |
Volume | 14 |
Issue number | 2 |
Early online date | 22 Feb 2019 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - 2019 |